mekong
Deploy the first prototype
Connect reviewed observations, a selected river reach and river-flow inputs. Run forecasts in shadow mode alongside field sampling.
05 / Predict · Pollution Simulation and Forecasting Engine
Deliverable #9 deployment ↓DELIVERABLE #9 / POLLUTION SIMULATION & FORECASTING ENGINE
Demonstration scenarioWatch the river carry the story.
Play a mining-release scenario. Follow the plume through a tributary, into the main river and past downstream water users.
MINING → TRIBUTARY → MAINSTREAM00h 00m
Mine release0 km
Cu concentration overlayLow High
Press play to follow the release ↑
Release · 0 h12 h24 h36 h
Plume centre0.0 km
Leading display edge0.0 km
Mass still in reach0.0 kg
Ready · 20 kg release over 2 hours. Press play or move the timeline.
CONCENTRATION ALONG THE RIVER
µg/L · The scale stays fixed while the scenario plays. The drop at 18 km reflects mixing with the larger river.
Released 0.0 kgIn reach 0.0 kgBeyond 60 km 0.0 kg
Scenario assumptions & how to read this animation ＋
The model represents downstream advection, longitudinal dispersion and complete mixing at the confluence. It uses steady flows and an initially uncontaminated river. A coarse 200 m grid adds numerical spreading; timing is illustrative, not a precision forecast. It tracks the selected metal as a conservative dissolved tracer: no decay, sorption, settling, resuspension, pH chemistry or uptake into organisms. Different metals share the same transport calculation; their health context differs.
Arrival and the displayed plume edge use a 0.1 µg/L visualization threshold, not a health, drinking-water or regulatory limit. “Below display level” does not mean safe. Distances belong to the 60 km scenario; the illustrated landscape is not a surveyed map. The color is an explanatory overlay—dissolved metals are not necessarily visible.
This is a simplified educational model, not a calibrated Mekong forecast or a fish mortality, fish-tissue or human-health model. At 1× playback, one real second represents 24 simulated minutes. Field observations and independent validation are needed for operational use. EPA transport modelling context ↗
Illustrative mining release, landscape, flows and concentrations. No real mine, community, fishery or pollution incident is identified. Potential health effects depend on exposure and local conditions.
DELIVERABLE #9 / FROM SIMULATION TO OPERATIONAL FORECASTING
Build the forecast around verified evidence.
Validate defined uses
Compare predictions with independent observations, document uncertainty and introduce human-reviewed forecasts for the accepted scope.
Connect additional reaches
Validate the agreed expansion and exposure scenarios. Link the forecasting service to intakes, the data hub and the response workflow.
Delivery targets follow the programme roadmap. The animation above is an educational implementation, separate from acceptance of an operational forecasting service. See the full work plan ↗